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Modelling the effects of contaminated environments on HFMD infections in mainland China
Jinyan Wang1, Yanni Xiao2, Robert A Cheke3
1Department of Applied Mathematics, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, PR China; College of Mathematics and Information Science, Beifang University of Nationalities, Yinchuan 750021, PR China.
Abstract:
Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) has spread widely in mainland China increasing in prevalence in most years with serious consequences for child health. The HFMD virus can survive for a long period outside the host in suitable conditions, and hence contaminated environments may play important roles in HFMD infection. A new mathematical model was proposed and used to investigate the roles that asymptomatic individuals and contaminated environments played in HFMD dynamics. The model includes both direct transmission between susceptible and infected individuals and indirect transmission via free-living infectious unites in the environment. Theoretical analysis shows that the disease goes to extinction if the basic reproduction number is less than unity, whilst otherwise the disease persists. By fitting the proposed model to surveillance data we estimated the basic reproduction number as 1.509. Numerical simulations show that increasing the rate of virus clearance and decreasing transmission rates can delay epidemic outbreaks and weaken the severity of HFMD. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the basic reproduction number is sensitive to the transmission rate induced by asymptomatic infectious individuals and parameters associated with contaminated environments such as the indirect transmission rate, the rate of clearance and the virus shedding rates. This implies that asymptomatic infectious individuals and contaminated environments contribute substantially to new HFMD infections, and so would be targets for effective control measures.
Insights
Asymptomatic carriers and contaminated environments significantly drive hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) transmission. Targeting these factors is crucial for effective HFMD control and preventing outbreaks.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Infectious Disease Dynamics
Background:
- Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is a growing public health concern, particularly in mainland China, with significant impacts on child health.
- The persistence of the HFMD virus in the environment suggests that indirect transmission plays a role in its spread.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and analyze a mathematical model investigating the transmission dynamics of HFMD.
- To assess the contributions of asymptomatic individuals and environmental contamination to HFMD outbreaks.
Main Methods:
- A mathematical model incorporating direct and indirect transmission routes was formulated.
- The model was fitted to surveillance data to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0).
- Numerical simulations and sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate control strategies.
Main Results:
- The estimated basic reproduction number (R0) was 1.509, indicating endemic transmission.
- Simulations demonstrated that enhanced virus clearance and reduced transmission rates can mitigate HFMD severity and delay outbreaks.
- Sensitivity analysis highlighted the significant impact of asymptomatic transmission and environmental factors (indirect transmission, clearance, shedding) on R0.
Conclusions:
- Asymptomatic individuals and contaminated environments are substantial contributors to HFMD transmission.
- Interventions targeting asymptomatic carriers and environmental hygiene are essential for effective HFMD control strategies.
