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A short note on measuring subjective life expectancy: survival probabilities versus point estimates
David R Rappange1, Job van Exel1, Werner B F Brouwer2
1Institute of Health Policy and Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Werner Brouwer, Office J8-53, P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Summary
Estimating life expectancy differs by method. Survival probability questions yield higher longevity expectations than direct point estimates, especially for younger individuals and higher socioeconomic groups. These findings highlight potential comparability issues in subjective longevity research.
Area of Science:
- Gerontology
- Sociology
- Health Economics
Background:
- Subjective longevity expectations are crucial for planning but challenging to measure accurately.
- Existing research uses various methods, such as direct life expectancy estimates and survival probability assessments.
- Direct comparisons between these common elicitation methods are scarce.
Purpose of the Study:
- To directly compare two common methods for measuring subjective longevity expectations: point estimates and survival probabilities.
- To investigate how individual characteristics influence the differences observed between these measurement methods.
- To assess the comparability of findings derived from different subjective longevity elicitation formats.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a representative sample of the Dutch population.
- Employed two distinct elicitation formats: direct subjective point estimates of life expectancy and survival probability assessments to target ages.
- Analyzed differences in longevity estimates between the two methods and their correlation with respondent characteristics.
Main Results:
- Respondents provided higher average longevity estimates using survival probabilities (83.6 years) compared to point estimates (80.2 years).
- Discrepancies between methods were less pronounced for younger individuals and those with higher socioeconomic status.
- Moderate correlation was observed between the two estimation methods, with similar associations to respondent characteristics.
Conclusions:
- Findings from point estimates and survival probability methods for subjective longevity may not be directly interchangeable, particularly in specific demographic subgroups.
- Factors like rounding, anchoring, and focal point answers warrant further investigation in subjective expectation measurement.
- Additional research is essential to refine and validate methods for measuring subjective longevity expectations.
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