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Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
Can ROMA algorithm stratify ovarian tumor patients better when being based on specific age ranges instead of the
Anita Chudecka-Głaz1, Aneta Cymbaluk-Płoska2, Jolanta Jastrzębska3
1Department of Gynecological Surgery and Gynecological Oncology of Adults and Adolescents, Pomeranian Medical University, Al. Powstańców Wielkopolskich 72, 70-111, Szczecin, Poland. anitagl@poczta.onet.pl.
Abstract:
After several years of research, HE4 was found to be characterized by slightly worse sensitivity but significantly higher specificity as compared with CA125. Further studies led to the diagnostic potential of both markers (CA125 and HE4) being combined in a single risk of malignancy algorithm (ROMA) algorithm. The objective of this study was to assess the diagnostic capabilities of the ROMA algorithm using age ranges instead of dichotomization of patients according to the pre- and postmenopausal status. A total of 413 female patients were included in the study, including 162 premenopausal and 251 postmenopausal women. Calculation of the final ROMA values was achieved by means of stepwise reduction of coefficients in the proposed formula of: %ROMA = exp(PI)/[1-exp(PI)]*100) and PI = A + W(HE4)(*)ln(HE4) + W(CA125)(*)ln (CA125) and the arrangement of values with consideration to the age group, HE4 level, differentiation of modification, and directional coefficients as well as determination of individual deviations affecting the widening of the median. The cutoff value of modified algorithm ROMA P for the entire study population was calculated from receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and DeLong method at the levels of 23.5 %. Marked higher sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV) values are observed for the standard ROMA algorithm while higher specificity and positive predictive value (PPV) values are observed for the modified algorithm ROMA P. The proposed age-related modification of algorithm calculation does not require the patients being dichotomized according to their pre- or postmenopausal status, and satisfactory diagnostic values may be obtained using a single cutoff point for the entire population.

