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The 2015 Static-99R: Alternative Recidivism Tables for High-Risk Offenders
Richard W Elwood1, Sharon M Kelley1, James C Mundt1
11 Sand Ridge Secure Treatment Center, Madison, WI, USA.
Summary
This study offers updated sexual recidivism rates for male sex offenders using the Static-99R tool. These new rates, including the Bridgewater sample, provide more precise risk assessments for high-risk individuals.
Area of Science:
- Forensic Psychology
- Criminology
- Risk Assessment
Background:
- The Static-99R is a widely used actuarial tool for assessing male sex offender recidivism risk.
- Recent revisions to Static-99R norms excluded the Bridgewater sample, reducing the high risk/high need (HR/HN) group size and widening confidence intervals for predicted recidivism rates.
Purpose of the Study:
- To provide alternative 5- and 10-year sexual recidivism rates for the Static-99R HR/HN group.
- To improve the precision of recidivism risk assessments by including the Bridgewater sample in analyses.
Main Methods:
- Logistic regression analyses were performed on the entire 2009 Static-99R HR/HN group, incorporating the Bridgewater sample.
- Recidivism rates were calculated for 5- and 10-year follow-up periods.
Main Results:
- The alternative recidivism rates derived from the full 2009 HR/HN group demonstrated a good fit with the observed 2009 data.
- These new rates feature smaller confidence intervals compared to the revised norms that excluded the Bridgewater sample.
Conclusions:
- The proposed alternative sexual recidivism rates from the 2009 HR/HN group (including the Bridgewater sample) offer a viable option for risk assessment.
- These updated rates can enhance the accuracy of assessments for sexually violent persons (SVP) and other high-risk offenders.
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