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Predictors of mortality in children due to severe and very severe pneumonia

Chandrakant M Bokade1, Abhishek D Madhura1, Abhay S Bagul1

  • 1Department of Pediatrics, Government Medical College, Nagpur, Maharashtra, India.

Nigerian Medical Journal : Journal of the Nigeria Medical Association
|January 14, 2016
PubMed

Insights

Predictors of mortality in children with severe pneumonia include delayed hospital referral, incomplete immunisation, severe malnutrition, refusal to feed, and hypoglycemia. These factors significantly increase the risk of death in young children.

Area of Science:

  • Pediatric critical care
  • Infectious diseases
  • Public health

Background:

  • Pneumonia is a leading cause of child mortality globally.
  • Limited data exists on mortality predictors in children with severe pneumonia in Central India.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify predictors of mortality in children aged 1-59 months hospitalized with severe and very severe pneumonia.
  • To inform targeted interventions for reducing child mortality from pneumonia.

Main Methods:

  • Observational longitudinal study conducted in a tertiary care hospital in Central India.
  • Enrolled 290 children aged 1-59 months with severe/very severe pneumonia.
  • Analyzed outcomes and mortality predictors using Chi-square and regression analyses.

Main Results:

  • Overall case fatality rate was 8.62%.
  • Key independent predictors of mortality identified via multivariate regression include: delayed hospital referral (aOR=52.09), incomplete immunisation (aOR=12.28), severe malnutrition (aOR=15.51), refusal to feed (aOR=30.57), and hypoglycemia (aOR=6.98).
  • Mortality was highest in the 1-6 month age group (64%).

Conclusions:

  • Delayed hospital referral, incomplete immunisation, severe malnutrition, refusal to feed, and hypoglycemia are significant independent predictors of mortality in children with severe pneumonia.
  • These findings highlight critical areas for intervention to improve survival rates in pediatric pneumonia cases.
Abstract

Keywords:
Childrenmortalitypredictorssevere pneumoniavery severe pneumonia

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