[A simulation model for the spread of AIDS and an analysis of its sensitivity]

The author describes the basic module of simulation models of the spread of AIDS created according to the principles of the general method of multicompartmental models. In the model are distinguished susceptible persons infected persons who do not yet transmit the infection, infected and infecting persons those with clinical symptoms of AIDS, and those who died from AIDS. The basic module was already used for the creation of a simulation model of the spread of AIDS in the community of homo- and bisexuals differentiating them as to their level of sexual promiscuity. The model makes it also possible to study the influence of changes in sexual behaviour and practices as a result of health education etc. The sensitivity analysis of this model indicates that only by very rapid and marked changes in sexual behaviour and practices it will be possible to achieve a substantial reduction of the impact of the AIDS epidemic.