Validation of a bone scan positivity risk table in non-metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer

To test the external validity of a previously developed risk table, designed to predict the probability of a positive bone scan among men with non-metastatic (M0) castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC), in a separate cohort.

We retrospectively analysed 429 bone scans of 281 patients with CRPC, with no known previous metastases, treated at three Veterans Affairs Medical Centers. We assessed the predictors of a positive scan using generalized estimating equations. Area under the curve (AUC), calibration plots and decision-curve analysis were used to assess the performance of our previous model to predict a positive scan in the current data.

A total of 113 scans (26%) were positive. On multivariable analysis, the only significant predictors of a positive scan were log-transformed prostate-specific antigen (PSA): hazard ratio (HR) 2.13; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.71-2.66 (P < 0.001) and log-transformed PSA doubling time (PSADT): HR 0.53; 95% CI 0.41-0.68 (P < 0.001). Among men with a PSA level <5 ng/mL, the rate of positive scans was 5%. The previously developed risk table had an AUC of 0.735 to predict positive bone scan with excellent calibration, and provided additional net benefit in the decision-curve analysis.

We have validated our previously developed table to predict the risk of a positive bone scan among men with M0/Mx CRPC. Use of this risk table may allow better tailoring of patients' scanning to identify metastases early, while minimizing over-imaging. Regardless of PSADT, positive bone scans were rare in men with a PSA <5 ng/mL.