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A Simplified Approach to Risk Assessment Based on System Dynamics: An Industrial Case Study
Emmanuel Garbolino1, Jean-Pierre Chery2, Franck Guarnieri1
1MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, CRC, Sophia Antipolis, France.
Summary
This study introduces a simplified qualitative risk evaluation method for Seveso plants, using system dynamics to model complex sociotechnical systems and improve safety assessments in industrial settings.
Area of Science:
- Industrial Safety
- System Dynamics Modeling
- Sociotechnical Systems Analysis
Background:
- Seveso plants are complex sociotechnical systems requiring robust risk assessment models.
- Existing safety reports often oversimplify or omit system modeling, overlooking critical interactions.
- Industrial accidents frequently stem from the interplay of technical, human, and organizational factors.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose an original, simplified qualitative risk evaluation method for Seveso plants.
- To develop a dynamic risk assessment framework for industrial activities.
- To address the complexity and temporal changes inherent in sociotechnical systems.
Main Methods:
- Utilizing Forrester's system dynamics theory for modeling.
- Implementing a 10-step methodology encompassing system dynamics modeling and risk analysis.
- Applying the developed method to a case study of a chemical plant.
Main Results:
- The proposed method effectively models the sociotechnical system of a chemical plant.
- It allows for the assessment of both technological and organizational safety components.
- The dynamic risk assessment framework provides a comprehensive approach to industrial safety.
Conclusions:
- System dynamics offers a valuable approach to managing complexity in industrial risk assessment.
- The developed methodology enhances the evaluation of safety in Seveso plants.
- This approach supports more accurate and dynamic safety management in industrial activities.
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