Distinct mutation accumulation rates among tissues determine the variation in cancer risk

Cancer is believed to be a result of accumulated mutations. However, this concept has not been fully confirmed owing to the impossibility of tracking down the ancestral somatic cell. We sought to verify the concept by exploring the correlation between cancer risk and mutation accumulation among different tissues. We hypothesized that the detected mutations through bulk tumor sequencing are commonly shared in majority, if not all, of tumor cells and are therefore largely a reflection of the mutations accumulated in the ancestral cell that gives rise to tumor. We collected a comprehensive list of mutation frequencies revealed by bulk tumor sequencing, and investigated its correlation with cancer risk to mirror the correlation between mutation accumulation and cancer risk. This revealed an approximate 1:1 relationship between mutation frequency and cancer risk in 41 different cancer types based on the sequencing data of 5,542 patients. The correlation strongly suggests that variation in cancer risk among tissues is mainly attributable to distinct mutation accumulation rates. Moreover, the correlation establishes a baseline to evaluate the effect of non-mutagenic carcinogens on cancer risk. Finally, our mathematic modeling provides a reasonable explanation to reinforce that cancer risk is predominantly determined by the first rate-limiting mutation.