THE ASSUMPTIONS OF CAUSAL ANALYSES FOR INCOMPLETE CAUSAL SETS OF TWO MULTILEVEL VARIABLES

aThree causal analyses of correlations: the two-stage partial correlation analysis of Pelz and Andrews (1964); the cross-lagged panel correlation analysis of Campbell and Stanley (1963), Campbell (1963), and Rozelle and Campbell (1969); and a new three-stage analysis described in this paper are evaluated in terms of causal models representing any two variables which constitute an incomplete causal set. It is found t h a t the first two analyses make assumptions which are not generally true and which are not presently subject to practical tests. The third i s found to be useful as a way of finding out whether the correlation between two variables i s due entirely to third variable causation.