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Area of Science:

  • Oceanography
  • Climate Science
  • Atmospheric Science

Background:

  • Atmospheric variability is inherently unpredictable due to internal dynamics.
  • Ocean circulation was previously thought to be more deterministic under atmospheric forcing.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify the uncertainty in upper-ocean circulation variability.
  • To assess the potential impact of intrinsic oceanic variability on interannual predictability.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model.
  • Conducted multiple ensemble "hindcast" simulations using observed atmospheric forcing with slight initial condition variations.

Main Results:

  • Identified substantial uncertainty in extratropical ocean circulation, particularly along mid-latitude western boundary currents (WBCs) like the Kuroshio.
  • Demonstrated that intrinsic variability significantly limits the predictability of interannual ocean variability and meso-scale eddy activity.

Conclusions:

  • Intrinsic oceanic variability poses a major challenge to predicting upper-ocean circulation, especially in WBCs.
  • Multi-member ensemble simulations are essential for accurate understanding and prediction of WBCs and their impact on climate and ecosystems.