Spatio-Temporal Dimensions of Child Poverty in America, 1990-2010

The persistence of childhood poverty in the United States, a wealthy and developed country, continues to pose both an analytical dilemma and public policy challenge, despite many decades of research and remedial policy implementation. In this paper, our goals are twofold, though our primary focus is methodological. We attempt both to examine the relationship between space, time, and previously established factors correlated with childhood poverty at the county level in the continental United States as well as to provide an empirical case study to demonstrate an underutilized methodological approach. We analyze a spatially consistent dataset built from the 1990 and 2000 U.S. Censuses, and the 2006-2010 American Community Survey. Our analytic approach includes cross-sectional spatial models to estimate the reproduction of poverty for each of the reference years as well as a fixed effects panel data model, to analyze change in child poverty over time. In addition, we estimate a full space-time interaction model, which adjusts for spatial and temporal variation in these data. These models reinforce our understanding of the strong regional persistence of childhood poverty in the U.S. over time and suggest that the factors impacting childhood poverty remain much the same today as they have in past decades.