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Local and global risk perceptions significantly influence epidemic thresholds. High global risk heterogeneity can paradoxically increase infection ratios despite a higher epidemic threshold.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Mathematical Modeling

Background:

  • Understanding public perception of epidemic risk is crucial for effective public health interventions.
  • Differences between local and global risk perceptions may influence disease spread dynamics.
  • Existing models often simplify risk perception, potentially overlooking key factors.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze how local versus global risk perceptions impact epidemic thresholds.
  • To investigate the roles of indirect risk, global risk heterogeneity, and individual susceptibility.
  • To explore the surprising effects of global risk perception on infection ratios.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a mathematical model to simulate epidemic spread under varying risk perception scenarios.
  • Introduced parameters for indirect risk sources, global risk heterogeneity, and individual susceptibility.
  • Analyzed the relationship between risk perception, epidemic threshold, and infection ratios.

Main Results:

  • When direct risk is undetectable, local risk perception has minimal impact on the epidemic threshold.
  • In such cases, local and global risk perceptions show similar effects, explaining why global perception may not alter the threshold.
  • A key finding is that high heterogeneity in global risk perception can lead to increased infection ratios, even with a higher epidemic threshold.

Conclusions:

  • Public risk perception, particularly its global aspect and heterogeneity, plays a complex role in epidemic dynamics.
  • The study highlights the importance of considering diverse risk perception factors in epidemic modeling.
  • Findings suggest that interventions should account for how perceived global risk heterogeneity might influence actual infection rates.