Success rates for product development strategies in new drug development

While research has examined the likelihood that drugs progress across phases of clinical trials, no research to date has examined the types of product development strategies that are the most likely to be successful in clinical trials. This research seeks to identify the strategies that are most likely to reach the market-those generated using a novel product development strategy or strategies that combine a company's expertise with both drugs and indications, which we call combined experience strategies.

We evaluate the success of product development strategies in the drug development process for a sample of 2562 clinical trials completed by 406 US pharmaceutical companies. To identify product development strategies, we coded each clinical trial according to whether it consisted of an indication or a drug that was new to the firm. Accordingly, a clinical trial that consists of both an indication and a drug that were both new to the firm represents a novel product development strategy; indication experience is a product development strategy that consists of an indication that a firm had tested previously in a clinical trial, but with a drug that was new to the firm; drug experience is a product development strategy that consists of a drug that the firm had prior experience testing in clinical trials, but with an indication that was new to the firm; combined experience consists of both a drug and an indication that the firm had experience testing in clinical trials. Success rates for product development strategies across clinical phases were calculated for the clinical trials in our sample.

Combined experience strategies had the highest success rate. More than three and a half percent (0·036) of the trials that combined experience with drugs and indications eventually reached the market. The next most successful strategy is drug experience (0·025) with novel strategies trailing closely (0·024). Indication experience strategies are the least successful (0·008). These differences are statistically significant.

The primary contribution of this study is that product development strategies combining experience with drugs and indications strategies are the most likely to reach the market, even though they are least common strategy. Therefore, combined experience strategies remain underutilized. The findings also suggest a promising path for pursuing combined experience strategies: gaining expertise with drugs is likely to be a more effective path to gaining the expertise necessary for developing subsequent recombination strategies.