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Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability
Alistair W R Seddon1, Marc Macias-Fauria2, Peter R Long3
1Department of Biology, University of Bergen, Allégaten 41, N-500 Bergen, Norway.
Nature
|February 18, 2016
Summary
This study introduces a new vegetation sensitivity index to identify ecosystems highly responsive to climate variability. This helps understand ecosystem resilience and its impact on services vital for human well-being.
Area of Science:
- Ecology and environmental science
- Climate change research
- Remote sensing and geospatial analysis
Background:
- Ecosystem resilience to climate change is a critical global research priority.
- Understanding ecosystem sensitivity to climate variability is key to assessing resilience.
- Existing theoretical models suggest systems near critical thresholds are more sensitive to perturbations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and present a novel, empirical approach for assessing ecosystem sensitivity to climate variability.
- To introduce a new metric, the vegetation sensitivity index (VSI), for identifying sensitive regions.
- To provide a quantitative methodology for understanding differential ecosystem responses to environmental variability.
Main Methods:
- Utilized time series data from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index (EVI).
- Incorporated key climatic variables influencing vegetation productivity: air temperature, water availability, and cloud cover.
- Employed autoregressive modeling to analyze monthly vegetation productivity, identify climate drivers, and detect regions with memory effects and reduced response rates.
Main Results:
- Identified specific ecologically sensitive regions exhibiting amplified responses to climate variability over the past 14 years.
- Sensitive areas include Arctic tundra, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, alpine regions, central Asian steppes/prairies, South American Caatinga forest, and eastern Australia.
- The vegetation sensitivity index (VSI) effectively highlights areas with significant climate-driven vegetation changes.
Conclusions:
- The developed quantitative methodology allows for assessing the relative response rates of diverse ecosystems to environmental variability.
- This approach is foundational for investigating the drivers of varying ecosystem sensitivity.
- Understanding ecosystem sensitivity is crucial for predicting impacts on ecosystem services and human well-being.
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