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Temperature Response of Soil Organic Matter Decomposition Rates: Construction and Applications of a Temperature Gradient Block
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On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature.

Adolf Stips1, Diego Macias1, Clare Coughlan1

  • 1European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Water Research Unit, Via E. Fermi 2749, Ispra 21027, Italy.

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Greenhouse gases, especially CO2, are the primary cause of recent global warming, driving a one-way causal link with temperature anomalies. Natural forcings have minimal long-term impact, though temperature can influence CO2 on paleoclimate scales.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Earth System Science
  • Causal Inference

Background:

  • Understanding the causal relationships between anthropogenic and natural forcings and global temperature anomalies is crucial for climate change research.
  • Previous studies have analyzed correlations, but establishing clear causality requires advanced techniques.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the causal structure between global radiative forcing and global mean surface temperature anomalies (GMTA) since 1850.
  • To identify the primary drivers of recent global warming using a novel information flow technique.

Main Methods:

  • Application of a newly developed information flow technique to analyze time-series data of radiative forcing and GMTA.
  • Investigation of causality from 1850 to the present, including spatial analysis and consideration of paleoclimate time scales.

Main Results:

  • Unambiguous one-way causality confirmed between total Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) and GMTA, with CO2 identified as the main driver of recent warming.
  • Significant causal influence from aerosol forcing and short-term volcanic forcing; natural forcings (solar, volcanic) show no significant long-term causal impact.
  • Anthropogenic forcing fingerprint varies regionally; on paleoclimate scales, temperature changes precede CO2/CH4 increases.

Conclusions:

  • Anthropogenic GHGs are the dominant cause of recent global warming.
  • Aerosols and short-term volcanic activity also contribute causally, but natural forcings do not drive long-term trends.
  • The direction of causality reverses on geological timescales, with temperature influencing GHG concentrations.