Dose estimation for nuclear power plant 4 accident in Taiwan at Fukushima nuclear meltdown emission level

An advanced Gaussian trajectory dispersion model is used to evaluate the evacuation zone due to a nuclear meltdown at the Nuclear Power Plant 4 (NPP4) in Taiwan, with the same emission level as that occurred at Fukushima nuclear meltdown (FNM) in 2011. Our study demonstrates that a FNM emission level would pollute 9% of the island's land area with annual effective dose ≥50 mSv using the meteorological data on 11 March 2011 in Taiwan. This high dose area is also called permanent evacuation zone (denoted as PEZ). The PEZ as well as the emergency-planning zone (EPZ) are found to be sensitive to meteorological conditions on the event. In a sunny day under the dominated NE wind conditions, the EPZ can be as far as 100 km with the first 7-day dose ≥20 mSv. Three hundred sixty-five daily events using the meteorological data from 11 March 2011 to 9 March 2012 are evaluated. It is found that the mean land area of Taiwan in becoming the PEZ is 11%. Especially, the probabilities of the northern counties/cities (Keelung, New Taipei, Taipei, Taoyuan, Hsinchu City, Hsinchu County and Ilan County) to be PEZs are high, ranging from 15% in Ilan County to 51% in Keelung City. Note that the total population of the above cities/counties is as high as 10 million people. Moreover, the western valleys of the Central Mountain Range are also found to be probable being PEZs, where all of the reservoirs in western Taiwan are located. For example, the probability can be as high as 3% in the far southern-most tip of Taiwan Island in Pingtung County. This shows that the entire populations in western Taiwan can be at risk due to the shortage of clean water sources under an event at FNM emission level, especially during the NE monsoon period.