[Application and evaluation of signal strength indictor in communicable disease automatic early warning system]

To explore the effect of signal strength indictor (SSI) in improving sensitivity of China Infectious Diseases Automated-alert and Response System (CIDARS).

Diarrhea cases in 2007-2011 and early warning signals in 2010-2011 were selected by using random digital table method. Then, SSI and event-related ratio (ER) were calculated. The relationship between ER and SSI was analyzed, and the effect of SSI on ER was explored by using multiple logistic regression analysis.

9 620 early warning signals in 2010-2011 were generated in two years. Of these, 74, or 0.77% were defined as suspected outbreak signal. The median of SSI related with suspected outbreak signal was 4.0, which was much higher than non-suspected outbreak signal (1.7). ER was significantly correlated with SSI (r=0.917). SSI classification has a good correlation between the ER, ER exceeded 20 after SSI reached 20. The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed OR of SSI related with suspected outbreak signal was 2.52 (95% CI 2.04-3.12). Compared with non-epidemic season, the relationship of SSI and ER in epidemic season was much higher.

SSI was closely related with ER. The relationship was much closer in large scale outbreak and epidemic season, and compared to non-epidemic,the effect of epidemic season is more obvious.