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Uncertainty of Monetary Valued Ecosystem Services - Value Transfer Functions for Global Mapping
Stefan Schmidt1, Ameur M Manceur1,2, Ralf Seppelt1,3,4
1UFZ, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department Computational Landscape Ecology, 04318 Leipzig, Germany.
Plos One
|March 4, 2016
Summary
This study developed global models to estimate the monetary value of ecosystem services (ES), accounting for uncertainties. These models offer reliable valuations for better decision-making in resource management.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Environmental Economics
- Conservation Science
Background:
- Increasing resource demand pressures ecosystem services (ES) and biodiversity.
- Monetary valuation of ES is a key decision-support tool for unmarketed goods.
- Existing value transfer functions lack global applicability and uncertainty quantification.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop global value transfer functions for 12 ecosystem services.
- To quantify uncertainties and assess the transferability of monetary ES valuations.
- To identify key drivers influencing monetary values of ES.
Main Methods:
- Meta-analysis of 194 case studies and 839 monetary ES values.
- Application of boosted regression trees with 93 study- and site-specific variables.
- Global extrapolation and uncertainty analysis of valuation models.
Main Results:
- Models explain 18-44% of variance in monetary values for 12 ES.
- Statistically reliable extrapolations cover 70-91% of the terrestrial Earth's surface.
- Ecosystem homogeneity and weak ownership negatively impact valuation accuracy.
Conclusions:
- This study provides the first global quantification of uncertainties in monetary ES valuation.
- Findings highlight the importance of site-specific factors and challenge assumptions of ecosystem homogeneity.
- Standardized integration of uncertainty is crucial for reliable benefit transfer and decision support.
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