Intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of source-sink dynamics

Many factors affect the presence and exchange of individuals among subpopulations and influence not only the emergence, but the strength of ensuing source-sink dynamics within metapopulations. Yet their relative contributions remain largely unexplored. To help identify the characteristics of empirical systems that are likely to exhibit strong versus weak source-sink dynamics and inform their differential management, we compared the relative roles of influential factors in strengthening source-sink dynamics. In a series of controlled experiments within a spatially explicit individual-based model framework, we varied patch quality, patch size, the dispersion of high- and low-quality patches, population growth rates, dispersal distances, and environmental stochasticity in a factorial design. We then recorded source-sink dynamics that emerged from the simulated habitat and population factors. Long-term differences in births and deaths were quantified for sources and sinks in each system and used in a statistical model to rank the influences of key factors. Our results suggest that systems with species capable of rapid growth, occupying habitat patches with more disparate qualities, with interspersed higher- and lower-quality habitats, and that experience relatively stable environments (i.e., fewer negative perturbations) are more likely to exhibit strong source-sink dynamics. Strong source-sink dynamics emerged under diverse combinations of factors, suggesting that simple inferences of process from pattern will likely be inadequate to predict and assess the strength of source-sink dynamics. Our results also suggest that it may be more difficult to detect and accurately measure source-sink dynamics in slow-growing populations, highly variable environments, and where a subtle gradient of habitat quality exists.