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Flood Catastrophe Model for Designing Optimal Flood Insurance Program: Estimating Location-Specific Premiums in the

T Ermolieva1, T Filatova2,3, Y Ermoliev1

  • 1International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|March 13, 2016
PubMed
Summary

A new flood insurance model using an integrated catastrophe risk management (ICRM) approach offers robust premiums. This method ensures program solvency across diverse flood scenarios, unlike traditional average loss calculations.

Keywords:
Flood riskloss-sharing programsquantile-related stochastic optimizationspatial catastrophe model

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental science
  • Risk management
  • Insurance mathematics

Background:

  • Growing global flood risks necessitate improved flood risk management strategies.
  • Standard insurance premium calculations are challenged by rare catastrophic flood losses.
  • Effective flood insurance programs require stakeholder engagement and location-specific risk assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To design a flood-loss-sharing insurance program using location-specific exposures.
  • To develop and apply an integrated catastrophe risk management (ICRM) model for flood risk assessment.
  • To compare robust insurance premiums derived from the ICRM model with traditional average annual loss approaches.

Main Methods:

  • Development of an integrated catastrophe risk management (ICRM) model.
  • Integration of a GIS-based flood model with a stochastic optimization procedure.
  • Utilizing quantile-related risk functions for systemic insolvency analysis.
  • Comparison of robust premiums with the average annual loss approach.

Main Results:

  • Robust premiums derived from the ICRM model guarantee program solvency under all relevant flood scenarios.
  • The ICRM model establishes a balance between program security and location-specific welfare.
  • Robust premiums reduce the reliance on other risk transfer and risk reduction measures.

Conclusions:

  • The proposed ICRM model provides a more stable and robust approach to flood insurance premium calculation.
  • Robust premiums enhance the financial security and fairness of flood insurance programs.
  • This approach is crucial for effective flood risk management in areas with increasing flood hazards.