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Published on: June 10, 2025
The utility of biomarker risk prediction score in patients with chronic heart failure
Alexander E Berezin1, Alexander A Kremzer2, Yulia V Martovitskaya3
1Internal Medicine Department, State Medical University, 26, Mayakovsky av, Zaporozhye,, UA-69035 Ukraine.
Insights
A new biomarker risk score effectively predicts cardiovascular events in chronic heart failure (CHF) patients. This score, using NT-pro-BNP and other markers, aids in assessing survival probability and improving CHF patient care.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Biomarker Research
- Predictive Modeling
Background:
- Chronic heart failure (CHF) is a major cause of cardiovascular disease.
- Accurate risk stratification is crucial for managing CHF patients.
- Existing predictive models for CHF show variability in prognostication.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate a biomarker risk prediction score for assessing three-year cardiovascular event risk in CHF patients.
- To determine the efficacy of a multi-biomarker approach for risk stratification.
Main Methods:
- Prospective study of 388 patients with ischemic-induced CHF over 3 years.
- Collection of circulating biomarkers at baseline.
- Calculation of a cardiovascular risk index based on independent predictors.
Main Results:
- Identified NT-pro-BNP, galectin-3, hs-CRP, osteoprotegerin, and specific microparticle ratios as independent predictors.
- A biomarker risk score was calculated by summing predictor ranks.
- Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated better survival for patients with a risk score below 4 units.
Conclusions:
- A biomarker risk score incorporating NT-pro-BNP, galectin-3, hs-CRP, osteoprotegerin, and EMP/MPC ratios reliably predicts survival in CHF patients.
- This score offers a powerful tool for assessing cumulative cardiovascular event risk.
- The findings support the use of this multi-biomarker score for improved CHF patient management.
Background:
Chronic heart failure (CHF) has been remained a leading cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortaluty. The risk stratification of CHF individuals based on clinical criteria and biomarkers' models may improve medical care and probably increase efficacy of treatment strategy. However, various predictive models approved for CHF patients appear to be distinguished in their prognostications. The study aim was to evaluate whether biomarker risk prediction score is powerful tool for risk assessment of three-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events in CHF patients.
Methods:
It was studied prospectively the incidence of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events in a cohort of 388 patients with ischemic-induced CHF within 3 years. Circulating biomarkers were collected at baseline of the study.
Results:
Independent predictors of clinical outcomes in patients with CHF were NT-pro-BNP, galectin-3, hs-CRP, osteoprotegerin, CD31(+)/annexin V(+) endothelail-derived microparticles (EMPs) and CD31(+)/annexin V(+) EMPs to CD14(+)CD309(+) monuclear progenitor cells (MPCs) ratio. Index of cardiovascular risk was calculated by mathematical summation of all ranks of independent predictors, which occurred in the patients included in the study. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients with CHF and the magnitude of the risk of less than 4 units have an advantage in survival when compared with patients for whom obtained higher values of cardiovascular risk score ranks.
Conclusion:
Biomarker risk score for cumulative cardiovascular events, constructed by measurement of circulating NT-pro-BNP, galectin-3, hs-CRP, osteoprotegerin, CD31+/annexin V+ EMPs and CD31(+)/annexin V(+) EMPs to CD14(+)CD309(+) MPCs ratio, allowing reliably predict the probability survival of patients with CHF.
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