Body Mass Transitions Through Childhood and Early Adolescence: A Multistate Life Table Approach

The growing prevalence of overweight and obesity among children is well documented, but prevalence estimates offer little insight into rates of transition to higher or lower body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)(2)) categories. We estimated the expected numbers of years children would live as normal weight, overweight, and obese by race/ethnicity and sex, given rates of transition across BMI status levels. We used multistate life table methods and transition rates estimated from prospective cohort data (2007-2013) for Denver, Colorado, public schoolchildren aged 3-15 years. At age 3 years, normal-weight children could expect to live 11.1 of the following 13 years with normal weight status, and obese children could expect to live 9.8 years with obese status. At age 3 years, overweight children could expect to live 4.5 of the following 13 years with normal weight status, 5.1 years with overweight status, and 3.4 years with obese status. Whites and Asians lived more years at lower BMI status levels than did blacks or Hispanics; sex differences varied by race/ethnicity. Children who were normal weight or obese at age 3 years were relatively unlikely to move into a different BMI category by age 15 years. Overweight children are relatively likely to transition to normal weight or obese status.