Using Dynamic Risk to Enhance Conditional Release Decisions in Prisoners to Improve Their Outcomes

Advances in criminal risk assessment have increased sufficiently that inclusion of valid risk measures to anchor assessments is considered a best practice in release decision-making and community supervision by many paroling authorities and probation agencies. This article highlights how decision accuracy at several key stages of the offender's release and supervision process could be further enhanced by the inclusion of dynamic factors. In cases where the timing of release is discretionary and not legislated, the utilization of a validated decision framework can improve transparency and potentially reduce decision errors. In cases where release is by statute, there is still merit in using dynamic risk assessment and case analysis to inform the assignment of release conditions, thereby attending to re-entry and public safety considerations. Finally, preliminary results from a recent study are presented to highlight the fact that community supervision outcomes may be improved by incorporating changes in dynamic risk into case planning and risk management, although this work requires replication with larger populations reflecting diverse groups of offenders. Nonetheless, these decision strategies have implications for both resource allocation and client outcomes, as outlined here. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.