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Eliciting and combining subjective judgments about uncertainty.

R L Wolpert

    International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care
    |January 1, 1989
    PubMed
    Summary

    Health care decisions often require expert opinions when evidence is limited. This review explores methods for gathering and combining expert insights with empirical data for uncertain health technology assessments.

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    Area of Science:

    • Health economics
    • Decision analysis
    • Medical technology assessment

    Background:

    • Health care decisions frequently lack complete evidence on new technologies.
    • Decision-makers often rely on expert judgment to fill evidence gaps.
    • Assessing benefits, risks, and costs under uncertainty is crucial.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To review methods for eliciting expert opinions on uncertain health events.
    • To explore techniques for integrating expert judgment with empirical evidence.
    • To guide decision-making in health technology assessment.

    Main Methods:

    • Literature review of expert elicitation and judgment aggregation methods.
    • Discussion of techniques for quantifying expert beliefs.
    • Examination of approaches to combine subjective and objective data.

    Main Results:

    • Various methods exist for systematically gathering expert opinions.
    • Combining expert opinions with empirical data can improve decision-making under uncertainty.
    • The reviewed methods offer frameworks for structured expert input.

    Conclusions:

    • Expert opinion is a valuable resource in health technology assessment when evidence is scarce.
    • Systematic methods enhance the reliability of expert judgment in health care decisions.
    • Integrating expert insights with empirical data supports more robust evidence-based policy.

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