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Debris-flow risk analysis in a managed torrent based on a stochastic life-cycle performance.

J A Ballesteros Cánovas1, M Stoffel2, C Corona3

  • 1Dendrolab.ch. Institute for Geological Sciences, University of Bern, Baltzerstrasse 1+3, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland; Climate Change an Climate Impacts (C3i) Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, 66 Boulevard Carl-Vogt, CH-1205 Geneva, Switzerland.

The Science of the Total Environment
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Summary

Effective infrastructure maintenance and climate change adaptation are crucial for mountain torrent protection structures. This study quantines debris-flow risk and economic losses, highlighting increased maintenance costs for sustained safety.

Keywords:
Check damsDebris flowDeteriorationLife-cycle performanceNatural hazardRisk assessmentWartschenbach

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Area of Science:

  • Hydrology and Natural Hazards
  • Civil Engineering
  • Climate Change Adaptation

Background:

  • Protection structures in mountain torrents face challenges from aging infrastructure and changing debris-flow activity due to climate change.
  • Existing infrastructure requires significant maintenance, with many structures nearing the end of their service life.
  • Climate change is projected to alter debris-flow frequency and intensity, impacting the effectiveness of current protection measures.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the applicability of stochastic life-cycle performance analysis for evaluating debris-flow risk in managed torrent systems.
  • To quantify expected economic losses associated with debris-flow events, including infrastructure maintenance and potential failures.
  • To compare different management strategies under various climate change scenarios for debris-flow activity.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a stochastic life-cycle performance model to assess debris-flow risk at the Wartschenbach torrent in Austria.
  • Incorporated maintenance costs for infrastructure restoration and assessed the probability of check dam failure.
  • Analyzed two management strategies and three climate-driven debris-flow activity scenarios.

Main Results:

  • The study site experienced an average debris-flow frequency of 21 events per decade (1950-2000).
  • Projected changes in debris-flow activity range from +38% to -33% based on climate scenarios.
  • The current mitigation strategy effectively reduces expected damage (89%), but maintenance costs are projected to increase by 57-63% to maintain safety levels.

Conclusions:

  • Stochastic life-cycle performance analysis provides an integrated approach for assessing long-term effects and costs of torrent prevention structures.
  • Maintenance costs are a critical factor in risk assessments for managed torrent systems, influenced by both gradual deterioration and event-related damage.
  • Adapting management strategies and accounting for increased maintenance costs are essential for ensuring the long-term safety and functionality of mountain torrent protection infrastructure under changing climatic conditions.