Evidence and population consequences of shared larval dispersal histories in a marine fish

Larval dispersal is disproportionately important for marine population ecolgy and evolution, yet our inability to track individuals severely constrains our understanding of this key process. We analyze otoliths of a small reef fish, the common triplefin (Forsterygion lapillum), to reconstruct individual dispersal histories and address the following questions: (1) How many discrete sets of dispersal histories (dispersal cohorts) contribute to replenishment of focal populations; (2) When do dispersal cohorts converge (a metric of shared dispersal histories among cohorts); and (3) Do these patterns predict spatiotemporal variation in larval supply? We used light traps to quantify larval supply, and otolith microstructure and microchemistry (using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry; LA-ICP-MS) to reconstruct daily environmental histories of individuals in their 30-d lead-up to settlement. Our results indicate that a variable number of dispersal cohorts replenish focal populations (range of 2-8, mean of 4.3, standard deviation of 2.8). Convergence times varied (from 0 to > 30 d prior to settlement), and larval supply was negatively correlated with cohort evenness but not with the number of cohorts, or when they converged, indicating disproportionately large contributions from some cohorts (i.e., sweepstakes events). Collectively, our results suggest that larval reef fishes may variably disperse in shoals, to drive local replenishment and connectivity within a metapopulation.