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Solar cycles or random processes? Evaluating solar variability in Holocene climate records.
T Edward Turner1, Graeme T Swindles1, Dan J Charman2
1School of Geography, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK.
Scientific Reports
|April 6, 2016
Summary
Solar forcing signals in climate data may not be real. Analysis of peatland climate records reveals that apparent solar cycles can arise from random variations alone, necessitating careful interpretation.
Area of Science:
- Paleoclimatology
- Climate Science
- Geosciences
Background:
- Numerous studies suggest solar forcing influences Holocene climate change, using proxy data and solar variability records like carbon-14 ((14)C) and beryllium-10 ((10)Be).
- Peatland archives are frequently cited as evidence for solar forcing of climate.
- Misinterpretation of this literature has been used to argue that solar variability drove 20th-century global warming.
Purpose of the Study:
- To critically evaluate peatland proxy climate data for the presence of solar signals.
- To determine if observed periodicities in climate proxies genuinely reflect solar variability or could be artifacts of random processes.
Main Methods:
- Examination of high-resolution peatland proxy climate data.
- Time series analysis to identify periodicities within the climate data.
- Comparison of identified periodicities with those found in solar variability records.
- Generation of random-walk simulations to test for the occurrence of similar periodicities in random data.
Main Results:
- A range of significant periodicities, particularly between 40-100 years and 120-140 years, were identified in the peatland climate data, similar to those in solar variability records.
- Identical periodicities were commonly found in random-walk simulations, indicating they can arise from random variations.
- The presence of solar-type signals in the data does not necessarily confirm solar forcing.
Conclusions:
- Apparent solar-type signals in climate proxy records, including peatlands, can be generated by random variations alone.
- A more critical and cautious approach is required for the robust interpretation of these signals.
- The findings challenge the direct attribution of past climate changes solely to solar variability based on certain proxy data analyses.
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