Why has under-5 mortality decreased at such different rates in different countries?

Area of Science:

• Global Health
• Development Economics
• Demography

Background:

• Under-5 mortality (5q0) has declined globally, but rates vary significantly among developing countries.
• Previous analyses often assumed uniform technical progress, potentially masking key drivers of mortality reduction.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the impact of heterogeneous technical progress on under-5 mortality decline in developing countries.
• To re-evaluate the role of income, education, and healthcare access in mortality reduction when accounting for country-specific progress.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a panel dataset of 95 developing countries from 1970-2000.
• Employed econometric models to analyze country-specific rates of technical progress and their effect on under-5 mortality (5q0).

Main Results:

• Heterogeneity in technical progress across countries significantly explains cross-country variations in 5q0 decline.
• Allowing for country-specific progress reduces the estimated income elasticity of 5q0.
• Education and physician coverage also contribute to mortality decline but are less influenced by variations in technical progress.

Conclusions:

• Country-specific technical progress is a primary driver of under-5 mortality decline variations.
• Standard models may overestimate the impact of income on mortality reduction due to unobserved heterogeneity.
• Decomposition of 5q0 decline reveals diverse sources and magnitudes of progress across countries.