The Leakage Risk Monetization Model for Geologic CO2 Storage.

Area of Science:

• Geosciences
• Environmental Engineering
• Risk Assessment

Background:

• Geologic CO2 storage is crucial for climate change mitigation.
• Assessing and managing potential CO2 leakage risks is paramount for safe and effective deployment.
• Quantifying the financial implications of leakage is essential for stakeholder confidence and project viability.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and demonstrate a model that integrates CO2 leakage simulation with monetized leakage risk (MLR) estimation.
• To evaluate the impact of site selection and remediation strategies on MLR.
• To assess the financial risks associated with CO2 leakage from geologic storage.

Main Methods:

• Developed the Leakage Risk Monetization Model (LRiMM).
• Integrated CO2 leakage simulation with geospatial data for financial risk quantification.
• Simulated 30 years of CO2 injection into the Mt. Simon sandstone at two distinct locations.

Main Results:

• The peak MLR at a site near potential leakage pathways was 190x higher than at a farther site ($7.5/tCO2).
• MLR projections were significantly lower than overall CO2 storage costs for well-sited locations.
• Secondary trapping mechanisms rendered risks to potable aquifers and the atmosphere negligible.

Conclusions:

• Careful geological site selection is critical for minimizing monetized leakage risk in CO2 storage.
• LRiMM provides a framework for quantifying financial responsibilities and evaluating remediation benefits.
• While overall risks are low, targeted risk management and monitoring are essential for certain stakeholders and sites.