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Temperature extremes: geographic patterns, recent changes, and implications for organismal vulnerabilities.

Lauren B Buckley1, Raymond B Huey1

  • 1Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195-1800, USA.

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|April 11, 2016
PubMed
Summary

Extreme heat events are increasing globally, especially in the tropics. Organisms face novel thermal stresses due to weak geographic patterns in climate extremes and vulnerability.

Keywords:
CLIMDEXclimate changediversityextreme eventsheatthermal stressthermal tolerance

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Area of Science:

  • Climate science
  • Ecology
  • Evolutionary biology

Background:

  • Extreme temperatures significantly impact organisms and evolutionary trajectories.
  • Existing indices of thermal extremes lack comprehensive geographic analysis and biological vulnerability assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze geographic patterns of thermal extremes using CLIMDEX indices.
  • To evaluate the alignment of these patterns with biological vulnerability and diversity.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized CLIMDEX indices to score thermal extremes on a geographic grid.
  • Compared baseline (1961-1990) and recent (1991-2010) periods for shifts in extreme events.
  • Assessed correlations between extreme scores, organismal tolerances, species diversity, and human factors.

Main Results:

  • Heat extremes have become more frequent, particularly in tropical regions.
  • Geographic concordance among different extreme indices is weak, indicating diverse thermal stresses.
  • Recent shifts in thermal extremes are largely uncorrelated with baseline conditions, suggesting novel stresses.
  • Organismal tolerances correlate better with absolute temperature metrics than relative ones.
  • Regions with high extreme scores do not align with high biodiversity or human population density.

Conclusions:

  • Organisms face geographically idiosyncratic and potentially novel thermal stresses.
  • Predicting the impacts of extreme temperatures on biodiversity is challenging due to these complex patterns.