Predicting rapid relapse following treatment for chemical dependence: a matched-subjects design

Explored the prognostic significance of treatment and posttreatment variables on rapid relapse following residential treatment for chemical dependence. 54 persons were identified as 3-month treatment failures by the criteria of 1-3 months of alcohol/drug use in combination with alcohol/drug-related consequences and poor life adjustment. To limit heterogeneity, these persons were matched on MMPI scores with persons who were 3-month outcome successes. Additionally, these MMPI patterns were classified as near normal or indicative of psychiatric symptoms. Multivariate statistics revealed a high level of outcome predictability; continued emotional turmoil (depression, anxiety, and sleep problems) posttreatment was strongly related to failure among the psychiatric MMPI group. Failure to engage in a continuing posttreatment aftercare plan was associated with failure among persons in the near-normal MMPI group. Research approaches that attempt to limit heterogeneity among alcoholics appear to have promise in uncovering powerful prognostic indicators.