Epidemic cycling in a multi-strain SIRS epidemic network model

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Biology
• Network Science

Background:

• Infectious diseases caused by multi-strain pathogens often exhibit oscillating incidence and strain proportions, known as epidemic cycling.
• Existing models for epidemic cycling have not fully integrated the impact of social contact networks and multi-strain pathogen dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate how social contact network structure influences epidemic cycling in multi-strain infectious diseases.
• To explore the combined effects of network structure and inter-strain interactions on disease dynamics.

Main Methods:

• A two-strain epidemic model was developed for a random contact network with a fixed number of contacts per individual.
• The standard pair approximation method was employed to analyze the dynamics of infection states and contact pairs.

Main Results:

• Spatial correlation within the contact network, coupled with ecological interference and immune responses between strains, generates epidemic cycling.
• The two-strain model demonstrates epidemic cycling across a broader parameter range compared to single-strain models, aligning with many real-world infectious diseases.

Conclusions:

• The co-circulation of multiple pathogen strains within a structured contact network is a key factor explaining epidemic cycling.
• This network-based approach offers a more comprehensive understanding of infectious disease dynamics.