Minimal Residual Disease Evaluation in Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia: An Economic Analysis

Minimal residual disease (MRD) testing by higher performance techniques such as flow cytometry and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) can be used to detect the proportion of remaining leukemic cells in bone marrow or peripheral blood during and after the first phases of chemotherapy in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). The results of MRD testing are used to reclassify these patients and guide changes in treatment according to their future risk of relapse. We conducted a systematic review of the economic literature, cost-effectiveness analysis, and budget-impact analysis to ascertain the cost-effectiveness and economic impact of MRD testing by flow cytometry for management of childhood precursor B-cell ALL in Ontario.

A systematic literature search (1998-2014) identified studies that examined the incremental cost-effectiveness of MRD testing by either flow cytometry or PCR. We developed a lifetime state-transition (Markov) microsimulation model to quantify the cost-effectiveness of MRD testing followed by risk-directed therapy to no MRD testing and to estimate its marginal effect on health outcomes and on costs. Model input parameters were based on the literature, expert opinion, and data from the Pediatric Oncology Group of Ontario Networked Information System. Using predictions from our Markov model, we estimated the 1-year cost burden of MRD testing versus no testing and forecasted its economic impact over 3 and 5 years.

In a base-case cost-effectiveness analysis, compared with no testing, MRD testing by flow cytometry at the end of induction and consolidation was associated with an increased discounted survival of 0.0958 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and increased discounted costs of $4,180, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $43,613/QALY gained. After accounting for parameter uncertainty, incremental cost-effectiveness of MRD testing was associated with an ICER of $50,249/QALY gained. In the budget-impact analysis, the 1-year cost expenditure for MRD testing by flow cytometry in newly diagnosed patients with precursor B-cell ALL was estimated at $340,760. We forecasted that the province would have to pay approximately $1.3 million over 3 years and $2.4 million over 5 years for MRD testing by flow cytometry in this population.

Compared with no testing, MRD testing by flow cytometry in newly diagnosed patients with precursor B-cell ALL represents good value for money at commonly used willingness-to-pay thresholds of $50,000/QALY and $100,000/QALY.