Evaluating Groundwater Interbasin Flow Using Multiple Models and Multiple Types of Data

The groundwater interbasin flow, Q_y , from the north of Yucca Flat into Yucca Flat simulated using the Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS) model greatly exceeds assessments obtained using other approaches. This study aimed to understand the reasons for the overestimation and to examine whether the Q_y estimate can be reduced. The two problems were tackled from the angle of model uncertainty by considering six models revised from the DVRFS model with different recharge components and hydrogeological frameworks. The two problems were also tackled from the angle of parametric uncertainty for each model by first conducting Morris sensitivity analysis to identify important parameters and then conducting Monte Carlo simulations for the important parameters. The uncertainty analysis is general and suitable for tackling similar problems; the Morris sensitivity analysis has been utilized to date in only a limited number of regional groundwater modeling. The simulated Q_y values were evaluated by using three kinds of calibration data (i.e., hydraulic head observations, discharge estimates, and constant-head boundary flow estimates). The evaluation results indicate that, within the current DVRFS modeling framework, the Q_y estimate can only be reduced to about half of the original estimate without severely deteriorating the goodness-of-fit to the calibration data. The evaluation results also indicate that it is necessary to develop a new hydrogeological framework to produce new flow patterns in the DVRFS model. The issues of hydrogeology and boundary flow are being addressed in a new version of the DVRFS model planned for release by the U.S. Geological Survey.