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Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
Prognostic impact of breast cancer subtypes in elderly patients
E S Bergen1,2, C Tichy3,4, A S Berghoff3,4
1Comprehensive Cancer Center, Vienna, Austria. elisabeth.bergen@meduniwien.ac.at.
Abstract:
We aimed to analyse the impact of breast cancer (BC) subtypes on the clinical course of disease with special emphasis on the occurrence of brain metastases (BM) and outcome in an elderly BC population. A total number of 706 patients ≥65 years receiving treatment for BC from 2007 to 2011 were identified from a BC database. 62 patients diagnosed with DCIS and 73 patients with incomplete datasets were excluded, leaving 571 patients for this analysis. Patient characteristics, biological tumour subtypes, and clinical outcome including overall survival (OS) were obtained by retrospective chart review. 380/571 (66, 5 %) patients aged 65-74 years were grouped among the young-old, 182/571 (31.9 %) patients aged 75-84 years among the old-old, and 29/571 (5.1 %) patients aged ≥85 years among the oldest-old. 392/571 (68.8 %) patients presented with luminal BC, 119/571 (20.8 %) with HER2-positive, and 59/571 (10.3 %) with triple-negative BC (TNBC). At 38 months median follow-up, 115/571 (20.1 %) patients presented with distant recurrence. A higher recurrence rate was observed in the HER2-positive subtype (43/119 (36.1 %)), as compared to TNBC (15/59 (25.4 %)) and luminal BC (57/392 (14.5 %); p < 0.001). BM were detected at a significantly higher rate in HER2-positive BC patients (9/119 (7.6 %)), as compared to TNBC (2/59 (3.4 %)) and luminal BC patients (6/392 (1.5 %); p = 0.003). Diagnosis of metastatic disease (HR 7.7; 95 % CI 5.2-11.4; p < 0.001) as well as development of BM (HR 3.5; 95 % CI 1.9-6.4; p < 0.001) had a significantly negative impact on OS in a time-dependent covariate cox regression model. In contrast to younger BC patients, outcome in this large cohort of elderly patients suggests that HER2-positive disease-not TNBC-featured the most aggressive clinical course with the highest rates of metastatic spread and BM. In-depth analysis regarding a potentially distinct biology of TNBC in elderly is therefore warranted.
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