Evidence of prostate cancer "reverse stage migration" toward more advanced disease at diagnosis: Data from the...

The widespread adoption of prostate-specific antigen-based prostate cancer screening caused a stage migration toward earlier stage disease at diagnosis. We investigated whether this stage migration has persisted in a contemporary analysis of a population-based statewide cancer registry.

We analyzed the Pennsylvania Cancer Registry, a statewide registry of all newly diagnosed cancers. Data were collected on prostate cancers diagnosed between 1992 and 2012. We determined age-adjusted prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates, as well as the distribution of tumor stage (localized, regional, or metastatic) at diagnosis, and assessed for changes in these variables over time using joinpoint analysis.

Between 1992 and 2012, 210,831 new cases of prostate cancer were diagnosed in Pennsylvania, and 33,948 men died of disease. Age-adjusted prostate cancer incidence rates, and specifically the incidence of localized disease, have decreased dramatically since 2007 to 2008. Due to the decreased diagnosis of localized disease, regional and metastatic tumors have made up a greater percentage of all prostate cancer diagnoses in recent years, despite a relatively stable incidence of these advanced stage tumors.

Over the past 2 decades, age-adjusted prostate cancer incidence rates in Pennsylvania have decreased, primarily because of the decreased detection of early-stage disease. There has been a corresponding shift toward more advanced disease at diagnosis. These findings may be explained by the decreased use of prostate-specific antigen-based screening, among other factors. The 2012 United States Preventative Services Task Force recommendations against prostate cancer screening may exacerbate this concerning trend, potentially resulting in an increase in prostate cancer-specific mortality.