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Exploring the Climate Change, Migration and Conflict Nexus.

Kate Burrows1, Patrick L Kinney2

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Climate change can influence migration and conflict, but its exact role is uncertain. Future research should explore various pathways linking climate variability, human migration, and conflict risk.

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Sociology
  • Political Science

Background:

  • The relationship between climate change, migration, and conflict is a growing concern for policymakers, often framed as a security issue.
  • Significant uncertainty exists regarding the precise influence of climate variability and change among the multifaceted drivers of migration and conflict.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To explore the potential pathways linking climate change, migration, and an increased risk of conflict.
  • To review existing literature on the climate-migration-conflict nexus.

Main Methods:

  • Literature review examining the links between climate change and migration.
  • Literature review examining the links between migration and conflict.

Main Results:

  • A wide spectrum of views exists on the significance of climate change as a driver of increased migration and subsequent conflict.
  • The direct climate-migration-conflict pathway is complex and influenced by numerous other factors.

Conclusions:

  • Future research must investigate not only the direct climate-migration-conflict pathway but also other mechanisms through which climate variability and change can exacerbate conflict.
  • Five key questions are proposed to guide future research in this critical interdisciplinary area.