Related Experiment Video
Updated: Mar 22, 2026

Implementation of a Real-Time Psychosis Risk Detection and Alerting System Based on Electronic Health Records using CogStack
Published on: May 15, 2020
Psychometric prediction of penitentiary recidivism
Pedro M Medina García1, Rosa M Baños Rivera
1Centro Penitenciario de Tarragona.
Background:
Attempts to predict prison recidivism based on the personality have not been very successful. This study aims to provide data on recidivism prediction based on the scores on a personality questionnaire. For this purpose, a predictive model combining the actuarial procedure with a posteriori probability was developed, consisting of the probabilistic calculation of the effective verification of the event once it has already occurred.
Method:
Cuestionario de Personalidad Situacional (CPS; Fernández, Seisdedos, & Mielgo, 1998) was applied to 978 male inmates classified as recidivists or non-recidivists.
Results:
High predictive power was achieved, with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85 (p <.001; Se = 0.012; 95% CI [0.826, 0.873]. The answers to the CPS items made it possible to properly discriminate 77.3% of the participants.
Conclusions:
These data indicate the important role of the personality as a key factor in understanding delinquency and predicting recidivism.
More Related Videos
08:05A Prediction Error-driven Retrieval Procedure for Destabilizing and Rewriting Maladaptive Reward Memories in Hazardous Drinkers
Published on: January 5, 2018
08:05A Procedure to Study Stress-Induced Relapse of Heroin Seeking after Punishment-Imposed Abstinence
Published on: March 23, 2022
Related Concept Videos
Regression Toward the Mean
Prediction Intervals
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
The Stanford Prison Experiment
Self-Report Tests of Personality
Reliability and Validity
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis