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High-Resolution Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Risk Mapping in Mutasa District, Zimbabwe: Implications for Regaining

Mufaro Kanyangarara¹, Edmore Mamini², Sungano Mharakurwa²

¹Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland. mkanyan1@jhu.edu.

The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

|April 27, 2016

Summary

Malaria risk in Zimbabwe is highest during the rainy season, especially in low-lying areas. This study developed predictive maps to guide targeted malaria control efforts.

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Published on: November 2, 2018

Area of Science:

Epidemiology
Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
Environmental Health

Background:

Manicaland Province, Zimbabwe, experiences seasonal malaria epidemics, accounting for over half of the country's cases.
Intensified control strategies have not fully curbed malaria transmission in the region.
Mutasa District is identified as a high-burden area requiring focused interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop a predictive model for malaria risk using environmental factors.
To generate seasonal malaria risk maps for Mutasa District, Zimbabwe.
To inform targeted malaria control strategies in a high-epidemic region.

Main Methods:

Household surveys and rapid diagnostic tests were conducted from October 2012 to September 2015.
Logistic regression modeled malaria positivity based on environmental covariates from remote sensing data.
Seasonal risk maps were created using model predictions and standard errors.

Main Results:

Malaria risk was predicted to be elevated during the rainy season, particularly in low-lying areas near Mozambique.
Malaria risk was generally low during the dry season, with localized high-risk areas.
The study identified spatial and temporal patterns of malaria risk.

Conclusions:

Environmental factors significantly influence seasonal malaria risk in Mutasa District.
Targeted interventions are needed, especially during the rainy season and in identified high-risk zones.
Cross-border malaria control initiatives are crucial for comprehensive disease management.