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Prediction of HCV vertical transmission: what factors should be optimized using data mining computational analysis
Abd Elrazek1, Mohamed Amer2, Bahaa El-Hawary3
1Department of Tropical diseases and Gastroenterology, Aswan School of Medicine, Aswan University, Aswan, Egypt.
Summary
High viral load in mothers with hepatitis C virus (HCV) significantly increases the risk of vertical HCV transmission to newborns. Early screening and viral load management in pregnant women are crucial for prevention.
Area of Science:
- Hepatology
- Virology
- Maternal-Fetal Medicine
Background:
- Hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence is highest in Egypt.
- Neonates born to HCV-positive mothers are often not screened for the virus.
- Factors influencing vertical HCV transmission require further investigation and optimization.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate factors contributing to vertical HCV transmission in Egypt.
- To identify predictors of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HCV.
Main Methods:
- Prospective follow-up of neonates born to HCV-positive mothers (January 2015 - March 2016).
- Data mining and computational analysis to quantify transmission factors.
- Prevalence assessment among 3000 pregnant women.
Main Results:
- HCV prevalence was 1.53% (46/3000) among pregnant women.
- Vertical HCV transmission occurred in 17.39% (8/46) of neonates.
- High HCV viral load (≥975,000 IU/mL) was the sole predictor of MTCT.
Conclusions:
- HCV in pregnancy poses a substantial risk for vertical transmission.
- High maternal viral load is a key risk factor for MTCT.
- Early screening of pregnant women and optimizing maternal viral load can prevent vertical HCV transmission.
