Evaluating the Impact of the US National HIV/AIDS Strategy, 2010-2015

The 2010 US National HIV/AIDS Strategy (NHAS) set key targets for the reduction of HIV incidence (25 %) and the transmission rate (30 %) by 2015. We utilized published CDC data on HIV prevalence and mortality for 2007-2012, and literature-based incidence estimates for 2008-2012, along with mathematical modeling to evaluate whether the original NHAS incidence and transmission rate goals were achieved. From 2010 to 2015, a decrease was estimated from about 37,366 to 33,218 (11.1 % net decrease) for HIV incidence, and from 3.16 to 2.61 (17.4 % net decrease) for the HIV transmission rate. Over the same period, estimated all-cause mortality decreased from 17,866 to 16,085, while HIV prevalence increased from 1,181,300 to 1,270,755 persons living with HIV. At the conclusion of the original NHAS time period, important incremental but ultimately insufficient progress was made in attempting to reach key incidence and transmission rate targets for the NHAS. HIV prevention efforts must be reinvigorated in the NHAS's second era.