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A robust nonparametric method for quantifying undetected extinctions.

Ryan A Chisholm1, Xingli Giam2, Keren R Sadanandan1

  • 1Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, 14 Science Drive 4, 117558, Singapore.

Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
|May 7, 2016
PubMed
Summary

Scientists developed a new method to estimate species extinctions, including those not yet described by science. This nonparametric approach reveals a higher true extinction rate, crucial for understanding biodiversity loss.

Keywords:
Singaporean avifaunaavesavifauna de Singapurbiodiversity lossbirdsmodelo no-paramétricononparametric modelpérdida de biodiversidad

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Area of Science:

  • Biodiversity science
  • Conservation biology
  • Statistical ecology

Background:

  • Assessing humanity's impact on biodiversity requires quantifying undetected extinctions.
  • Existing statistical methods rely on parametric assumptions limiting their accuracy.
  • Real-world detection and extinction rates vary with survey effort and threats.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a novel, nonparametric method for estimating undetected extinctions.
  • To provide a more accurate assessment of biodiversity loss.
  • To quantify the true extinction rate, including undescribed species.

Main Methods:

  • A new nonparametric statistical method was devised.
  • The method uses only the first and last recorded dates for each species.
  • It estimates proportions of extinct, detected, and undetected species.

Main Results:

  • Applied to Singapore's bird fauna, 58 of 195 species (29.7%) have gone extinct.
  • An estimated 9.6 additional species (95% CI 3.4, 19.8) went extinct undetected.
  • The projected true extinction rate is 33.0% (95% CI 31.0%, 36.2%).

Conclusions:

  • The new nonparametric method offers a broadly applicable tool for quantifying undetected extinctions.
  • The method's minimal assumptions enhance its utility in conservation science.
  • Understanding undetected extinctions is vital for a complete biodiversity impact assessment.