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Updated: Mar 21, 2026
Author Spotlight: Diatom Testing for Forensic Drowning Examination
Published on: November 10, 2023
Predicting outcome of drowning at the scene: A systematic review and meta-analyses
Linda Quan1, Joost J L M Bierens2, Rebecca Lis3
1Department of Pediatrics, University of Washington School of Medicine, 1959 NE Pacific St, Seattle, WA 98195, USA; Seattle Children's Hospital, 4800 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98145, USA; Harborview Injury Prevention & Research Center, 401 Broadway, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98122, USA.
Objective:
To identify factors available to rescuers at the scene of a drowning that predict favourable outcomes.
Design:
Systematic review and meta-analysis.
Data Sources:
PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library were searched (1979-2015) without restrictions on age, language or location and references lists of included articles.
Study Selection:
Cohort and case-control studies reporting submersion duration, age, water temperature, salinity, emergency services response time and survival and/or neurological outcomes were eligible. Two reviewers independently screened articles for inclusion, extracted data, and assessed quality using GRADE. Variables for all factors, including time and temperature intervals, were categorized using those used in the articles. Random effects meta-analyses, study heterogeneity and publication bias were evaluated.
Results:
Twenty-four cohort studies met the inclusion criteria. The strongest predictor was submersion duration. Meta-analysis showed that favourable outcome was associated with shorter compared to longer submersion durations in all time cutoffs evaluated: ≤5-6min: risk ratio [RR]=2.90; (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.73, 4.86); ≤10-11min: RR=5.11 (95% CI: 2.03, 12.82); ≤15-25min: RR=26.92 (95% CI: 5.06, 143.3). Favourable outcomes were seen with shorter EMS response times (RR=2.84 (95% CI: 1.08, 7.47)) and salt water versus fresh water 1.16 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.24). No difference in outcome was seen with victim's age, water temperatures, or witnessed versus unwitnessed drownings.
Conclusions:
Increasing submersion duration was associated with worse outcomes. Submersion durations <5min were associated with favourable outcomes, while those >25min were invariably fatal. This information may be useful to rescuers and EMS systems deciding when to perform a rescue versus a body recovery.
