SWITCH-China: A Systems Approach to Decarbonizing China's Power System.

Area of Science:

• Energy policy
• Climate change mitigation
• Economic modeling

Background:

• China's power sector faces significant decarbonization challenges.
• Integrating renewable energy sources requires managing short-term variability.
• Existing renewable energy price trends alone may not suffice for coal phase-out.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the economic and technological implications of decarbonization in China's power sector.
• To assess the feasibility of achieving carbon emission reduction targets.
• To evaluate the role of carbon pricing and energy mix optimization.

Main Methods:

• Development and application of the SWITCH-China integrated model.
• Simulation of medium to long-term decarbonization scenarios.
• Incorporation of renewable energy variability and carbon pricing mechanisms.

Main Results:

• A carbon price of approximately $40/tCO2 can enable China to reach its 2030 carbon peak.
• An 80% emission reduction by 2050 is feasible under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Target Scenario.
• An optimal 2050 electricity mix includes nuclear (14%), wind (23%), solar (27%), hydro (6%), gas (1%), coal (3%), and carbon capture and sequestration coal (26%).

Conclusions:

• Carbon pricing strategies, when accounting for the true cost of coal and social cost of carbon, can offset 22%-42% of increased electricity costs.
• Achieving a cost-effective energy transition necessitates robust carbon policies, research, and innovation in technology and finance.