Estimated GFR and Mortality in Older Men: Are All eGFR Formulae Equal

Recently, the first estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) formula specifically developed for community-dwelling older adults, the Berlin Initiative Study Equation 2 (BIS2), was reported. To date, however, no study has examined the performance of the BIS2 to predict death in older adults as compared to equations used clinically and in research.

We prospectively followed 2,994 community-dwelling men (age 76.4 ± 5.6) enrolled in the MrOS Sleep Study. We calculated baseline eGFR from serum creatinine and cystatin-C using the BIS2, Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology (CKD-EPIcr,cysc), CKD-EPIcysc and CKD-EPIcr equations. Analyses included Cox-proportional hazards regression and net reclassification improvement (NRI) for the outcomes of all-cause and cardiovascular death.

Follow-up time was 7.3 ± 1.9 years. By BIS2, 42 and 11% had eGFR <60 and <45, respectively, compared to CKD-EPIcr (23 and 6%), CKD-EPIcysc (36 and 13%) and CKD-EPIcr,cysc (28 and 8%). BIS2 eGFR <45 was associated with twofold higher rate of all-cause mortality when compared to eGFR ≥75 after multivariate adjustment (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.5-2.8). Results were similar for CKD-EPIcr,cysc <45 (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.6-2.7) and CKD-EPIcysc <45 (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.7-2.7) and weaker for CKD-EPIcr <45 (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.2-2.0). In NRI analyses, when compared to CKD-EPIcr,cysc, both BIS2 and CKD-EPIcr equations more often misclassified participants with respect to mortality. We found similar results for cardiovascular death.

The BIS2 did not outperform and the CKD-EPIcr was inferior to the cystatin C-based CKD-EPI equations to predict death in this cohort of older men. Thus, the cystatin C-based CKD-EPI equations are the formulae of choice to predict death in community-dwelling older men.