Time discounting and criminal behavior.

Area of Science:

• Criminology
• Behavioral Economics
• Psychology

Background:

• Models of criminal behavior often predict that individual time preferences are significant.
• Empirical evidence on the link between time preferences and crime is scarce.
• This study addresses the gap in understanding the relationship between time discounting and criminal behavior.

Purpose of the Study:

• To provide the first empirical evidence on the connection between time discounting and crime.
• To investigate whether individuals' time discount rates predict future criminal involvement.
• To quantify the relationship between short time horizons and the risk of crime.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a unique dataset combining survey-based time discount rates (measured at age 13) with longitudinal criminal register data.
• Analyzed criminal behavior data spanning over 18 years.
• Employed statistical methods to assess the predictive power of time preferences on criminal involvement.

Main Results:

• Individuals exhibiting shorter time horizons demonstrated a significantly higher risk of later-life criminal involvement.
• The observed relationship between time discounting and crime was substantial in magnitude.
• The effect of time horizons on crime risk was found to be approximately one-third of the association between intelligence and crime.

Conclusions:

• Time preferences, specifically short time horizons, are a significant predictor of criminal behavior.
• The findings underscore the importance of considering individual time discounting in criminological models.
• Early-life measures of time preferences can offer insights into long-term criminal risk.