[Prediction of 10-year risk for ischemic cardiovascular disease in adults aged ≥35 years in China]

To estimate the 10-year risk for ischemic cardiovascular disease(ICVD)in adults aged ≥35 years.

In 2010, we conducted a cross sectional survey among 98 712 adults aged ≥18 years selected through using multi-stage stratified cluster random sampling, and 67 214 adults without ICVD history and aged ≥35 years were recruited as study subjects. Their information on cardiovascular disease history and related behavior risk factors, including smoking, hypertension and diabetes diagnosis history were collected through face-to-face questionnaire interview, health examination and laboratory detection. The 10-year risk for ICVD in this group was evaluated according to the China 10-year risk for ICVD score tables.

The average score and 10-year risk for ICVD in the adults aged ≥35 years were 5.1(95% CI: 4.9-5.2)and 4.2%(95% CI: 4.0%-4.4%), respectively. A total of 8.5% of the adults aged ≥35 years had high 10-year risk for ICVD(95%CI: 7.8%-9.2%). This proportion was 12.1% for males(95%CI: 11.1%-13.0%)and 4.9% for females(95%CI: 4.4%-5.5%)(P<0.05), 8.8% for those living in rural areas(95%CI: 7.8%-9.7%)and 8.1% for those living in urban areas(95%CI: 7.2%-8.9%)(P<0.05). About 19.1% and 72.4% of adults had middle and low 10-year risk for ICVD, respectively(95%CI: 18.2%-20.0%, 95%CI: 70.9%-73.9%). The proportion of the adults with high and middle risk for ICVD in 10 years was higher among those with lower educational level or with lower income level(P<0.05).

About 8.5% of the adults aged ≥35 years in China have high 10-year risk for ICVD. Being male, living in rural area, with lower education or lower income levels were related with the higher 10-year risk for ICVD.