When is it time to move to the next map? Optimal foraging in guided visual search

Suppose that you are looking for visual targets in a set of images, each containing an unknown number of targets. How do you perform that search, and how do you decide when to move from the current image to the next? Optimal foraging theory predicts that foragers should leave the current image when the expected value from staying falls below the expected value from leaving. Here, we describe how to apply these models to more complex tasks, like search for objects in natural scenes where people have prior beliefs about the number and locations of targets in each image, and search is guided by target features and scene context. We model these factors in a guided search task and predict the optimal time to quit search. The data come from a satellite image search task. Participants searched for small gas stations in large satellite images. We model quitting times with a Bayesian model that incorporates prior beliefs about the number of targets in each map, average search efficiency (guidance), and actual search history in the image. Clicks deploying local magnification were used as surrogates for deployments of attention and, thus, for time. Leaving times (measured in mouse clicks) were well-predicted by the model. People terminated search when their expected rate of target collection fell to the average rate for the task. Apparently, people follow a rate-optimizing strategy in this task and use both their prior knowledge and search history in the image to decide when to quit searching.