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Predicting global invasion risks: a management tool to prevent future introductions.

D H Fletcher1,2, P K Gillingham2, J R Britton2

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This summary is machine-generated.

The invasive topmouth gudgeon (Pseudorasbora parva) poses a significant threat to native fish populations and ecosystems. Risk maps predict its potential to invade new regions globally, highlighting areas for targeted surveillance.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Invasive Species Biology
  • Conservation Science
  • Risk Assessment

Background:

  • Non-native species introductions pose significant ecological and economic threats.
  • The topmouth gudgeon (Pseudorasbora parva), an invasive Asian cyprinid, has established widely across Europe.
  • Beyond direct impacts, P. parva can transmit diseases, increasing its ecological risk.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To predict regions at high risk of invasion by the topmouth gudgeon (P. parva).
  • To identify potential new invasion hotspots globally.
  • To develop a framework for invasive species risk assessment and management.

Main Methods:

  • Trained 900 ecological niche models (ENMs) to predict climatic suitability.
  • Developed an Ensemble Model integrating ENM predictions.
  • Incorporated a proxy for introduction likelihood to quantify overall invasion risk.

Main Results:

  • Identified high potential for P. parva invasion in regions beyond its current range.
  • Detected invasion risk hotspots across all modelled continents.
  • Highlighted areas with both high climatic suitability and introduction likelihood.

Conclusions:

  • The topmouth gudgeon (P. parva) has a substantial potential for further global spread.
  • Risk maps are valuable tools for policy-makers and managers to prioritize surveillance.
  • The developed methodology is adaptable for assessing risks of other invasive species.